BIG POST:
Vamp
Other Appearances: Metal Gear Solid 2: Sons of Liberty
Are we sure this is him?: Yes
This is surely Vamp of Metal Gear Solid 2 fame. The tell-tale bullet hole in his head makes this clear beyond most doubt, so we feel safe saying that Vamp is coming back for Metal Gear Solid 4. In Sons of Liberty, we learn that Vamp is a member of a group called Dead Cell that's basically a mock terrorist group used to test the defenses of government facilities. In short, the US government formed Dead Cell to attack the US's own facilities as training for US forces.
In Sons of Liberty, Dead Cell's leader Colonel Jackson is imprisoned by the government and dies in jail, which is why Dead Cell turns away from the Patriots' rule. In the Big Shell terrorist incident (again, in Sons of Liberty), Dead Cell joins forces with Solidus in an attempt to damage the Patriots.
Near the end of Metal Gear Solid 2, we assume that Vamp is killed by a sniper shot; he falls into the ocean after being shot, but we never actually see him die. However, his appearance in this new MGS4 poster suggests that, in fact, he didn't die in that incident.
The situation with Vamp also raises questions about the possible return of Fortune, another member of Dead Cell and wife of the deceased Colonel Jackson. At the end of Sons of Liberty, Fortune learns that Ocelot killed her father, Scott Dolph, in the Tanker incident that makes up the first portion of the game (with Solid Snake). Fortune gets shot by Ocelot and we assume she dies afterwards, but much like Vamp her death isn't obvious. We might just see this killer vixen make a return with Vamp in some sort of effort against the Patriots.
Meryl Silverburg
Other Appearances: Metal Gear Solid
Are we sure this is her?: Yes
Meryl made her first appearance in Metal Gear Solid on PlayStation where she aided Solid Snake in defeating Liquid Snake's terrorist threat in Alaska. Meryl is the daughter of Colonel Campbell, the familiar face that guides Snake through Metal Gear Solid and Sons of Liberty. She's sent into the terrorist situation of Alaska in order to coerce Colonel Campbell into working with the Patriots (bringing Solid Snake with him) to squelch Liquid Snake's rebellion.
We don't really know what happens to Meryl after the events of Metal Gear Solid, but we do know that she's still alive. Metal Gear Solid has two possible endings, one of which leaves Meryl dead. The true Metal Gear Solid ending shows Meryl riding away from the Alaskan weapon storage facility with Solid Snake.
We've really no clue as to why Meryl is returning to the story. It's possible that Meryl joined Solid Snake and Otacon in their non-governmental organization, Philanthropy, which is dedicated to wiping out all Metal Gear projects. Philanthropy operates outside of the jurisdiction of any higher power, beyond even the US government and the Patriots. If she did join Philanthropy, her role in MGS4 could simply be support for Solid Snake as we really don't know her personal motives.
Raiden
Other Appearances: Metal Gear Solid 2: Sons of Liberty
Are we sure this is him?: Yes
Raiden was the surprise hero in Metal Gear Solid 2: Sons of Liberty, and basically plays the part of a mindless puppet. In Sons of Liberty, Raiden's only motive is completing the mission he's assigned, though he and Snake uncover more truth regarding the Patriots as the mission progresses.
At the end of Sons of Liberty, Snake and Raiden learn that the Patriots kidnapped the baby of Olga Gurlukovich in order to coerce her into helping Raiden through the mission. Olga dies at the end of the game, but Snake and Raiden agree to save the child. The game ends then, so we don't know what happens afterwards, but it's possible that Metal Gear Solid 4 continues the story of Snake and Raiden hunting down the Patriots, both for Olga's child and presumably for other objectives (such as the utter destruction of GW, the information-controlling super computer created by the Patriots).
In the full poster image for MGS4, Raiden is seen holding a baby which we presume is his own—at the end of Sons of Liberty, Raiden learns that his girlfriend is pregnant. MGS4 takes place three years after the Big Shell incident of Sons of Liberty, making his baby around two years old, an age that matches the art. The baby in the picture looks too young to be the stolen child of Olga, who would be at least three years old (and probably older still).
Revolver Ocelot
Other Appearances: Metal Gear Solid, Metal Gear Solid 2: Sons of Liberty, Metal Gear Solid 3: Snake Eater
Are we sure this is him?: Yes
Revolver Ocelot is a very interesting character in the Metal Gear saga. In essence, Ocelot is a willing tool of the Patriots, and is really the only human manifestation of the secret group. Ocelot is the lovechild of The Boss and The Sorrow (both of which played their part in Snake Eater), and was taken from The Boss at the moment of birth into the care of the Patriots. Ocelot has thus been with the Patriots since birth, and despite many complex lies and deception his motive is very basic: serve the Patriots. At least that's what's apparent through the story already told.
His presence in Metal Gear Solid 4 should be no surprise. Ocelot will likely serve as the figurehead of whatever Patriot plot Solid Snake and company are out to stop. However, there's a potential twist. One of the strangest aspects in Sons of Liberty is the continued presence of Liquid Snake. In Metal Gear Solid, Ocelot loses his arm and Liquid Snake dies. However, in Sons of Liberty we find that Ocelot used Liquid's arm to replace his own. Slowly throughout Sons of Liberty, Liquid Snake's arm seems to take over Ocelot and Liquid's own motives show through. Liquid's motives are, basically, to overthrow the Patriots, so it'll be very interesting to see how his continued infection of Ocelot plays out in Metal Gear Solid 4.
Solid Snake
Other Appearances: Metal Gear Solid, Metal Gear Solid 2: Sons of Liberty + original Metal Gear games
Are we sure this is him?: Yes
The Metal Gear Solid 4 teaser trailer shown at Konami's E3 press conference confirms that Solid Snake is the main character of the game. The last we saw Solid Snake was at the end of Sons of Liberty, which is where Snake first really learns of the Patriots. At the end of the game, Snake agrees to find Olga Gurlukovich's son who was kidnapped by the Patriots, and presumably wants to continue his goal of eradicating the Metal Gear project.
Solid Snake is left with a disk that contains the names of the Patriots' Wisemen, but finds out that the names on the disk are those of men that had died two hundred years prior. We don't know how he continues the pursuit of the Patriots, but we do know that finding the Patriots is his objective.
In Sons of Liberty, the Patriots create Metal Gear Arsenal, an underwater fortress with a super computer designed to control the flow of information worldwide. In their effort to destroy all things Metal Gear, Snake and Ocelot aim to take down Arsenal and come to make the Patriots their enemy. Combine this aim with their promise to usurp Olga's child and you've already got a pretty compelling conflict to power the story of Metal Gear Solid 4.
Otacon
Other Appearances: Metal Gear Solid, Metal Gear Solid 2: Sons of Liberty
Are we sure this is him?: Yes
After the events of Metal Gear Solid, Otacon joined with Solid Snake to form the group Philanthropy with the objective of eradicating all Metal Gear projects. Otacon's main motive for fighting against Metal Gear is largely based on his family history. Otacon's grandfather helped to create the first nuclear bomb and, as we learn in Snake Eater, his father helped to draft the plans for the first Metal Gear project.
In Metal Gear Solid, Otacon is a scientist unknowingly working on the Metal Gear Rex project. Otacon is well aware of his family's dark past and tries to use his knowledge of science for good causes, which is why the revelation of his work and Metal Gear Rex has such an effect on the fragile man. And while the Otacon of Sons of Liberty is decidedly more stable and hardened, he's still intent on undoing any harm he's caused by destroying Metal Gear completely.
Otacon's isn't much of a field operative, so we definitely don't expect to see him on the front lines of battle in Metal Gear Solid 4. We expect he'll return as a support character, likely over Codec as in Sons of Liberty.
Big Boss?
Other Appearances: Metal Gear Solid 3: Snake Eater + original Metal Gear games
Are we sure this is him?: Not certain
First off, let's get this clear: we don't know who this is. This mysterious character appears to be new, though he strongly resembles a major player of Metal Gears past. Could this be the return of Big Boss, the main character of Snake Eater and genetic father of Solid Snake? The eyepatch he wears is on the same eye as Big Boss's eyepatch, and the apparent old age of the character would match with that of Big Boss, who—if he's alive—would be even older than Ocelot.
Beyond that guess, we have no idea who this character is. If this is Big Boss then we can assume he's continuing his efforts from before his disappearance. In the original Metal Gear games, Big Boss is responsible for starting Outer Heaven with the intention of forming the most powerful military force in the world. Before his supposed death at the hands of Solid Snake, Big Boss was using Metal Gear to accomplish his goal. We don't know for certain what happens to Big Boss after the events of Snake Eater. The ending of Snake Eater leaves Big Boss eating sour grapes as he learns of the Philosophers' deceptions, and we assume his Outer Heaven was an attempt to start a country free of the Philosophers' rule.
If he returns for Metal Gear Solid 4 (which honestly makes very little sense), it'll be interesting to see if Solid Snakes sides with him or fights against him. If Big Boss still intends to use Metal Gear to overthrow the Philosophers/Patriots then the conflict of interests between him and Snake (and Otacon) would make for a very interesting plot.
Naomi Hunter? Fortune?
Other Appearances: Metal Gear Solid? Metal Gear Solid 2: Sons of Liberty?
Are we sure this is her?: Not certain
This is the second mystery character in the Metal Gear Solid 4 poster artwork, and our guess for who she might be is even weaker than for the first. Our only guess is that this is Fortune, the killer female antagonist of Sons of Liberty with the ability to deflect bullets. Visually, the character in this MGS4 art loosely matches some art of Fortune in Sons of Liberty, but doesn't match others. Mainly, the art in this poster lacks the facial features of a black woman (which Fortune is), though some of the Sons of Liberty art looks similarly caucasian.
The only thing that makes us think this may be Fortune is the return of Vamp. At the end of Sons of Liberty, Fortune is shot and assumed dead. But much like Vamp, we don't actually see Fortune breathe her last. If this is Fortune, her motives would be identical to Vamp's though her emotions are likely even stronger. Through Ocelot, the Patriots killed both Fortune's father and her husband, giving her plenty of reason to want them gone.
Other speculation surrounding this mystery character suggests that it is actually Dr. Naomi Hunter from the first Metal Gear Solid. Naomi served as one of the support characters over Codec, but her real role in the story isn't apparent until near the end of the game. Naomi engineered the virus FOXDIE which is designed to infect and kill specific targets. Near the end of the game, we realize that Naomi is actually trying to kill Solid Snake with the FOXDIE and she is taken into custody and jailed. Shortly after the events of Metal Gear Solid, Naomi is broken out of jail and, while not certain, it is believed that Solid Snake was her rescuer.
Naomi Hunter could return in Metal Gear Solid 4 as more support, though now that her main tie to the story is completely dead—her brother, Gray Fox, who is the ninja in Metal Gear Solid—we're uncertain as to why she might be making the return. However, the image in the MGS4 artwork does very closely match art of Naomi Hunter, leading us to believe that this is indeed her.
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